hour, i'm kate snow. sn "mtp daily" starts right now. >> if it's monday, carson's climb has trump stumped and sanders' sniping has clinton griping. under a hundred days until iowa, things are starting to get serious. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. ♪ ♪ hello from new york, i'm steve kornacki in for chuck todd. the doctor is dominating the donald in the latest iowa polls, but can trump stop his slump? also tonight, more of chuck's interview with ben carson that you didn't see on sunday. weighing in on how to pay the nation's bills, where he sees bias on college campuses and what to do in syria. much more 2016 news to come as well.

plus rumbling that a budget deal could actually happen on capitol hill, possibly as early as tonight. so let's get right to the press box. nbc's katy tur is with the trump campaign in new hampshire. nbc's andrea mitchell has more on the dust-up between clinton and sanders. and julie bike wits of the associated press has details from the closed door meetings in houston where the bush family is hoping to give jeb a jump-start. we start with the republican nomination fight. less than a hundred days away from iowa now. new polling shows donald trump is slipping in that crucial leadoff caucus state. and ben carson is surging. a new loras college poll out just today finds carson in first place with a double-digit lead over trump. 12 points in that one. in addition to a new monmouth poll that has carson up over trump by 14 points. in fact, there are now four recent polls in that state that have trump sliding and carson pulling into a commanding lead. and perhaps feeling the heat

now, trump heads to the hawkeye state tomorrow. but today, he was in new hampshire, that's where a "today" show town hall found trump trying to dispute those iowa numbers. >> i don't believe i did fall behind. it was one poll and a second poll. small polls. i was in iowa three days ago. we had a town hall that was unbelievable. it was packed. the des moines register is a terrible paper, as far as i'm concerned. no, it is. very liberal paper, by the way. and i have other polls in iowa that say i am winning. >> nbc's katy tur is on the trump beat and joins us now from atkins atkinson, new hampshire. katy, it was two polls when he said that this morning. now it's four polls. we're looking at double-digit deficits. this is the first time since donald trump started to surge in the middle of the summer. we've talked about he might be slumping or stalling, this is the first time he's clearly fallen behind somewhere. what is the sense behind the scenes of the trump campaign? do they have a strategy to deal

with this? >> the trump campaign is never going to admit that there's anything wrong. they're never going to tell us that we're going to try and rejigger our campaign to make these adjustments in order to get more support in iowa. they have said maybe they should go to iowa more, but they'll never admit weakness. i think you can tell there is worry behind the scenes, though, because they have been trying to influence people, telling us to cite their other polls where he's doing so well and not being very happy about us citing the polls where he's not doing well. but the trump campaign is not going to ever admit that publicly. i will say, though, that other than iowa, donald trump is, in fact, doing well in new hampshire, doing well in south carolina, doing well in florida. doing well nationally. there was an associated press poll that had 7 in 10 republican leaning voters saying that if he wins the nomination, they think he can win the general election. so this is just iowa specific at

the moment and i don't think it's any surprise that it's iowa specific since iowa is a much more conservative state and there was always thought at some point carson or ted cruz or marco rubio might start to surge there instead of donald trump. >> thank you, katy tur. a beautiful fall day in atkinson, new hampshire. thank you for joining us. turning now to the democrats, hillary clinton celebrated her birthday today by releasing a new tv ad in key primary states. >> do you think when you're president you'll be paid as much as if it were a male? [ cheers and applause ] >> this is one of the jobs where they have to pay you the same. >> and one of clinton's birthday gif gifts was an endorsement from tom carper, he is now ready to back her with joe biden now officially out of the mix. but senator bernie sanders did not give clinton a pass on her

birthday. he touted his record on trade policy, taking subtle jabs on the pacific trade deal and also on president clinton's nafta deal. >> do you think you're able to make the tough political decisions that she can't? >> i do. and i'll tell you why. when i was elected to the congress in 1990, i had to deal with trade issues. and you had all of corporate america, and in fact the clinton administration, all these trade agreements are great. i said no to them, and it turns out that i was right. >> the comments follow a weekend where sanders didn't pull any punches at a major gathering of the democratic faithful in iowa, a gathering that featured all of the democratic candidates. >> i listen carefully to what bush and cheney and rumsfeld had to say, and i said no, they're not telling the truth.

and i was right. i came to that fork in the road and i took the right road, even though it was not popular at the time. >> let's bring in andrea mitchell who is covering the clinton campaign, and also the host of andrea mitchell reports, weekdays at noon. it's interesting to listen to bernie sanders now, by his standards, he brags he's never run a negative political ad in his life. by his standards, the rhetoric now is highly negative. he's talking about the iraq war, which he voted against and hillary clinton voted for. but by normal political campaign standards, this is still pretty tame. he's not calling her out by name, not crossing certain lines. is he going to have to now that clinton's regained so much momentum in the race? >> he's being so much tougher and confrontational about her record than he had been before. his advisers told him, he's got

to step it up after that debate, when it was widely viewed he was not confrontational enough and actually gave her a life line on the e-mails. so this is a new bernie sanders and the iowa platform was a very important comparison. tom harkin, who supports hillary clinton was quoted in "the new york times" was saying that bernie sanders has more passion among his supporters. and while she's ahead in the polls now in iowa, he's got the kind of enthusiasm that often counts on caucus night. she's running scared in iowa after what happened last time. she came in third. so she pulled out all the stops. katy perry, bill clinton in his first public campaign appearance for her on saturday night. but bernie sanders did have some points to make, particularly on doma. because of rachel maddow's interview on doma when hillary clinton said to rachel, that the reason why bill clinton supported the defense of marriage act was a defense

against an even worse contingency which was the possibility, the likelihood, according to hillary clinton's retelling of history, that there would have been a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. so he took a least worst option and in 1996, supported the defense of marriage act. well, that, bernie sanders argued is not true. and it's been pointed out by a number of fact checkers today and yesterday. hillary rosen, who was there then, tweeted to her friends, bill and hillary, saying that's not what happened, i was there. don't continue saying this. bottom line is, that it was politically advantageous. he was running for re-election. bob dole was in favor of the defense of marriage act, and like several other of the issues that were supported then, you know, by morris, who was helping him in his re-election campaign. he went for it and offended a lot of his liberal supporters and this was just one other

instance. >> it's interesting, a lot of things from the '90s, whether it was the crime bill, doma, a lot of that coming up 20 years later. >> welfare. >> welfare being an issue in the 2016 race. interesting to see where bernie sanders goes from here, though. again, after such a good week for hillary clinton. andr andrea, thank you. tonight, senator bernie sanders will be interviewed by rachel maddow, 9:00 eastern time. former presidents george w. and george h.w. bush are trying to res sussitate jeb bush's presidential campaign. long time bush family supporters are worried about disappointing poll numbers and underwhelming debate performances. jeb bush has lost the lean and mean optimism he used on friday to explain the cuts to his campaign staff. >> the whisper campaign has already started that bush is

falling apart. >> blah, blah, blah blah. that's my answer. you look at the race. october is not when you elect people. it's february. >> president george w. bush told supporters today that jeb's competitive edge will win him the nomination. but "the new york times" reports that even bush 91 is openly irritated by the front-runner. jeb bush's performance during wednesday's republican debate could likely serve as a critical turning point for his ailing campaign. joining me live from houston, texas, now is julie bikeo wits, national political reporter for the associated press. a lot of donors who put up a lot of money, have watched as the bush super pac have put a lot of money into the earl states and if you look at the polls, they have gotten nothing for their investment. with what they've heard in the last two days from jeb, from his brother, from the campaign brass, are they leaving this event reassured, or are they just as nervous as when they

came in? >> well, what we're hearing so far from donors is that they are sticking with him. it's definitely reality check time for these top donors. these are some of the most faithful bush donors. they've given to 41, they've given to 43. they're definitely backing jeb all the way. but they have to be looking at these poll numbers the way that we are and saying, what's going on, scratching their heads. they're eager for the super pac which raised more than $100 million in just the first half of the year, to start spending in a huge way. they're eager to see his poll numbers jump up even a little bit in some of these early states. so i would say this event, which would conceived months ago as a celebration of bush's top donors, a chance for them to hobnob with two former presidents and what they hope will be a third bush president, has transformed into reality check time and time to sort of buckle down and talk strategy that can actually move numbers.

>> yes, in terms of strategy to moves numbers, are they walking away with anything solid here, in terms of, hey, we're the bush campaign and this is what we're going to do to get from 5% to 20% in iowa, anything solid like that? >> what we're hearing is that they've really, in their minds, narrowed down the race to just two people. bush and marco rubio. it's as if the front-runners that you discussed earlier, don't exist. donald trump, ben carson, these bush doanars are absolutely confident those two will fade away, that voters will not put someone in the white house or nominate someone with no experience whatsoever. so they see this as their chance to really look forward and pitch bush and his experience as a sharp contrast to senator marco rubio, who's a first-term senator. there's a lot of comparisons between rubio and president barack obama who of course also was a first-term senator, and we're hearing these bush donors

and strategists start openly comparing bush and rubio's records as if they're looking ahead to a time when trump and carson and other candidates in the race have faded away, leaving only those two men behind. >> all right, the bush campaign taking the long view on this one. again, about a hundred days now from the iowa caucuses. julie, thank you. and coming up, ben carson on what he would do as president, from the budget battle, to his serious strategy. parts of chuck's interview that you didn't see on sunday. that's just ahead. plus, is speaker boehner finding a budget breakthrough that could help paul ryan's path ahead? might get news of a deal tonight. stick around. things. like limiting where you earn bonus cash back. why put up with that? but the quicksilver card from capital one likes to keep it simple. real simple. i'm talking easy like-a- walk-in-the-park, nothing-to-worry-about, man-that-feels-good simple.

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>> hundreds are dead and thousands more are injured after a massive earthquake struck south asia. the 7.5 quake flattened buildings across pakistan and in the northeast region of

afghanistan at about 2:00 local time. shock waves could be felt as far away as india. nbc producer waj khan has more from pakistan where he felt the quake. >> at least 200 dead in pakistan, with a thousand confirmed injuries. at least 70 confirmed dead in afghanistan with 300 injuries. aftershocks are still happening in islama bad. people are sleeping outside, scared. it's an old city with old houses. my own house has partially lost one of its boundary walls. but the government is sending out advisories, urging people to stay calm. and also being very resilient. the prime minister was in london and heading back to pakistan. pakistan pakistanis have been offered aid from their own indian rivals,

but have said they'll deal with the catastrophe on their own so far. that's the latest from slama bad. this is waj khan for nbc news. thank you. doctors without borders and other relief organizations are heading to the area in an effort to assist with the disaster. we'll be right back.

as ben carson surges to the front of the pack in iowa, chuck caught up with the candidate this weekend for "meet the press," but you didn't get to see all of it on sunday. like what carson had to say about using the government to monitor bias on college campuses, or how even though carson loves his status as a political outsider he has a more conventional view on paying the nation's bill. here's what you didn't see yet on tv from chuck's interview. >> you said the other day that on day one, when it came to the debt, that you wouldn't sign any budget that added to the debt. >> correct. >> can you really do that on

year one? we have a half trillion dollar deficit right now in this year and this is one of the better years. >> when it comes to paying off our debts, i think the wall is going to be in november. when i take over, it's going to be january. so there's going to be time to look at those 645 government agencies and all the other places where we can save money and not get to next november when our backs are up against the wall, when somebody's got a gun to your head and saying, you gotta raise it or we're going to default. >> do you think house republicans should go ahead and raise the debt ceiling right now? >> i would do that rather than default, because their backs are against the wall. but i would do it with stipulation that we have to make cuts and i would define those

cuts now. and if the president decides that he cannot sign it because it has the cuts on it, it's on him. and i think they ought to broadcast that everywhere. >> you said something interesting earlier this week, that you would use the department of education to police bias on college campuses. >> i said extreme bias. there's a difference. >> okay, but that is -- some could interpret that, including some conservatives who are upset about that, if you give the department of education that power, as a conservative, they might be comfortable -- >> let me tell you how -- >> a liberal would -- >> this is not just spouting off. i've thought about this. the way that works is, you invite the students at the universities to send in their complaints. and then you investigate. for instance, there was a university and i'm sure you heard of a situation where the professor told everybody, take out a piece of paper and write

the name jesus on it, put it on the floor and stomp on it. one student refused to do that and was disciplined severely. subsequently was reinstated. >> how is what you're advocating not a violation of the first amendment? >> it's not a violation of the first amendment, because all i'm saying is that taxpayer funding should not be used for propaganda. it shouldn't be. >> but your definition of propaganda could be somebody else's definition of free speech. >> that's why i said, we'll have the students send in, and we will investigation. and it goes in both directions. but there is just no way that our institutions of higher education should be used for indoctrination. institutions of higher education are for higher education. that means you have to be able to look at things from both sides. you have to be able to evaluate things in a very clear way, and if you're just always looking at things from one point of view, i don't think you're well educated. >> let me ask you a quick

question on syria. assad versus isis. what is the -- what should be the priority? >> well, it's a big, global issue. assad has been there for a long time. his father was there for a long time. there are a lot of complex relationships there. and if you just sort of sweep him out of the way, there is no guarantee that that would be a victory for us. isis, we know, is part of the global jihad movement, and their goal is to destroy us and our way of life. so, i am concerned about both. but i am extraordinarily concerned about the global jihadists, wherever they are. >> would you work with the russians? >> i would certainly talk with the russians. i think open conversation is a good thing to do. but in no way would i capitulate to them.

you know, putin has expansionist ideals. there's no question about that. and he's very ambitious. he says one thing and then he does another thing. when he came into syria, he said he was coming there to fight isis, but was he really? >> right. >> it's really al nusra, it was the anti-assad forces that he was there to fight. so we have to look at that. and i think we have to oppose him. we have to push back. because i believe that's just a beachhead for him. i believe he wants to extend his influence throughout the region. >> and you can head to the "meet the press" website for chuck's full interview with ben carson. up next, the who, what, when, where and why in today's headlines, including the surprising who that guatemala just elected to lead their country. and later, carson and trump trade barbs on the campaign trail, but is it friendly fire? we'll look at the history between these two candidates. that's ahead. (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise?

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time now for the w's. starting with a who. it's a former tv star and political novice, winning a presidential election. no, it's not the one you're thinking of. it's guatemala's jimmy morales, the comedian and political newcomer won a landslide victory sunday capitalizing on public anger or government corruption. now to the what. as in what the what. a report in sunday's washington post says a nato training exercise back in november 1983 prompted the soviet union to seriously prepare for a nuclear surprise attack from the united states. in short, we were just a hair trigger from nuclear war. i guess we can now laugh about it because it didn't happen. that happened just weeks before the airing of this classic tv movie, the day after, which imagined a nuclear attack on the

united states. that movie, by the way, has a 68% rating on rotten tomatoes. today's where, it will be a quiet ride for chris christie at wednesday's cnbc debate, he will still be standing right next to rand paul. the two of them, of course, exchanged fiery words while standing on opposite sides of the stage for the fox debate and the same was true at the cnn debate. we'll see if being right next to each other makes them play nice. also next to each other for the first time, fellow floridians jeb bush and marco rubio. the when tonight is november 21st, that's when republican senator david vitter and john bell edwards will face off in the louisiana gubernatorial election. those two were the highest finishers in this weekend's jungle primary, as chuck said here on friday. vitter's strong opposition in the state, even in conservative circles, makes this one the democrats could actually steal. and now the why.

republican senator kelly aya is supporting president obama's carbon emissions guidelines. the first new hampshire senator to sign on to the epa rules. as for the why, this is a tough spot for ayotte, already in a difficult fight for re-election against maggie hassan. and new hampshire businesses are staunchly behind the regulations. however, bucking the conservative tide against the epa may risk the wrath of the right and could cost her a chance of being vp on the 2016 republic ticket. up next the how, the budget deal and how it could affect paul ryan's speakership. >> the dow sheds 23, the s&p off three and the nasdaq adds 2. new home sales fell to the

lowest level since november of 2014. the report was weaker than economists expected. the federal reserve begins a meeting tomorrow and its decision on interest rates will be announced wednesday afternoon. shares of apple finished down ahead of its earnings report due out wednesday. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. chase for business. so you can own it.

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>> just eight days now until the government's debt limit hits its deadline, and now we have word of a possible deal that could avert a devastating government default. that deal could be announced as soon as tonight. house and senate republicans have scheduled meetings in the next hour to discuss the series of looming deadlines. and congressional aides have told nbc news, they are, quote, getting close to a deal that would set government funding levels for the next two years.

here's what white house press secretary josh earnest had to say when asked about the possible breakthrough. >> over the last several weeks, there have been bipartisan conversations taking place on capitol hill. the white house has been a part of many of those conversations as well. we have worked assiduously to protect the privacy and confidentiality of those discussions. principlely because nothing is agreed to in the context of the discussions until everything is agreed to. >> and joining us for more nbc's luke russert and lauren french. luke, let me start with you. the idea here of a deal between the white house, the democratic white house and congressional republicans, that is a rare thing in washington these days. if there is a deal, what is each side getting? what are the democrats getting that makes this okay to them? and what are the republicans getting that makes this okay from their standpoint? >> well, if this does in fact

happen, steve, it really is john boehner's last hoorah, and his huge early christmas gift to speaker in waiting paul ryan, because it would alleviate paul ryan headaches of a possible shutdown until 2017. however, dig into the details and remember, this is just speculation right now, from what sources have told us is not fine print. we won't know that until it actually comes out. democrats and republicans get increased defense and domestic spending. next year, $50 billion, and next year, $30 billion. and how is this paid for, is a bipartisan agreement on different entitlement fixes, as well as new fees, et cetera. that's what's going to have to come out. often here on capitol hill, the devil is in the details. we've not seen the details. maybe lauren french has.

but we'll see how it goes forward at this 6:00 p.m. meeting. >> that meeting will be very telling tonight, but when we talk about budget deals between the obama white house and congressional republicans, i think back to the summer of 2011, obama walking up to the edge of the grand compromise and then it just completely fell apart. the basic terms, maybe the democratic base wouldn't like entitlement cuts, maybe the tea party base wouldn't like more spending. how sellable do you think this is? >> we'll really see after these two meetings later this evening. house republicans will be meeting, as well as senate republicans and that will give leadership the chance to take the temperature of their respective caucuses, to see how much pushback they're going to get. on the house and senate democratic side, they've said without a clean debt ceiling bill, they're not on board. they also want to see the sequestration cuts removed, so

that deal does cover democrats, so there will be domestic spending increases. but it is always about the details and you really never know what the house freedom caucus, the hardliners in the republican caucus will do once they see the nuances of the deal and whether it will be good enough for them and whether or not republicans can then get democrats on board if it's not. >> yeah, luke, you mentioned this could be a potential early christmas present to paul ryan, assuming he becomes speaker of the house. is that how this would work? this would be done before he actually becomes speaker? he wouldn't have to do the arm-twisting on this one, and he would not have to get votes before the 2016 election to keep the government open or to keep it from defaulting? >> he's not been a part of these negotiations, we can report that. and if this were to go, i think the reason why it's moving so quickly, i was told last week, that republicans were having real whip problems on a clean debt limit increase. meaning, they had trouble finding 30 of their members to

get a clean debt limit increase across the finish line. they needed to pair it with something to say, this is what we got in exchange. i don't necessarily know if they'll get the majority in the house gop conference or the senate gop conference either. ryan conceivably would not have to lobby very hard for this bill, maybe he even votes against it, who knows, but if affords him no government shutdowns until march of 2017. he can focus on other issues that are much more cellable to his base and not have to deal with the chaos that undermined john boehner his last year in the speakership. >> so many predictions that ryan would immediately fall into that trap. we'll see. thank you both for joining us. >> still ahead, 13, it could be a lucky number for congressman elijah cummings as he considers a senate run in maryland. here the congressman is approaching a potential run. stay tuned.

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way, and i'm leading by 13 points. it does give me an idea of how we'll do. so we'll figure that out. >> like all of us, he is watching the polls and here are the latest washington post numbers for that democratic primary in maryland that cummings mentioned. he sits at 33%, that's 13 points higher than his fellow house members chris van hollen and donna edwards. despite at republican winning in maryland, this senate seat vacated by bob mikulski is probably a safe bet for democrats. at the moment, if cummings does jump in, the polling says it's his to lose. coming up, the back story on when trump met carson. vo: today's the day.

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together, they are the dominant forces in the republican race for president. donald trump and ben carson joined up to challenge the rules in this week's upcoming gop debate, a debate they enter as the unquestionable front-runners for their party's nomination. our latest national poll finds carson and trump sharing a combined 47% of all support on the republican side. but as carson has overcome trump with a double-digit lead in iowa, trump has begun to go on the attack. >> carson is -- i don't know what's going on. carson is lower energy than bush. i don't understand what's going on. >> for his part, carson tells "meet the press," he's not going to go there. >> i don't get into the mud pit, and i'm not going to be talking about people. >> but last month, carson did

question whether trump had, quote, humility and fear of the lord. so what is the relationship like between the political outsiders who are leading the gop race? and how is it changing? we'll bring in news max ceo christopher ruddy who urged trump to invite ben and his wife to dinner back in 2013, introducing them for the first time. christopher, thank you for joining us. this was a fascinating tidbit we read about over the weekend. and i'm curious if you can give us the back story here. two and a half years ago, donald trump and ben carson haven't met. you put them together, how and why? >> well, both of them actually may have met before then, because ben would frequently go to donald's mara lago where i'm a member, and it is the place for charity fund-raisers and the like, and i believe that donald and ben had actually seen each other, and i've been present there at several dinners that they have been at, or different

events that they have been at. so there's nothing really to allay the concern of some democrats that there might be a republican conspiracy afoot. the truth is that people down here in south florida, where i'm located, are bumping into each other, especially during the winter quite a bit. and that ben and donald have become friends. and i think they both consider each other friends, despite that clip that you heard, i don't think they're really saying anything nasty about each other yet, and i don't expect the tenor of that to become anywhere near the feud that jeb is having at donald -- or i should say donald's having -- >> the jeb and donald trump back and forth, i got to say, just watching, it's been pretty one-sided in terms of who's landing the most effective blows. but listening to donald trump bring up out of the blue, ben carson's religion, seventh day

adventist, he wasn't ridiculing it, but bringing it up as if it were strange and exotic. in the same way, ben carson made about trump and his humility last month was very personal as well. >> well, i personally think that religion should be off the table. people's personal lives, unless they impact public policy. i think if donald had something where the seventh day adventists and their religion might harm public policy or relate to legislation. but knowing both of them, and both of them have very strong inner convictions. i think both of them are spiritual people in a way. i know that's hard for some people to think about donald trump in that light. trump comes from a religious background. his parents were very, very religious. most people don't know that donald's church and his pastor was norman vincent peel of the marble collegiate church in new york. the famous book, the power of positive thinking, donald is

very much imbued with norman vincent peel's evangelical look at the world, about america's exceptionalism. a lot of that is derived from his religious experiences. and ben, of course, has stated very publicly, that his faith in jesus christ and his faith in god has been a life-safer for him and changed his heart and made him the person he is. so both people, very driven, but at the same time, they're very different personalities. >> obviously very different personalities. i'm curious what you think of who they are speaking to, who they are attracting, who they are reaching with their messages. we've seen a bunch of polls that put carson up double-digits in iowa. evangelical christians are a big part of his rise. then i see polls that put trump way ahead in new hampshire. i saw one among republicans in

massachusetts, up three or four to one. there were more secular republicans with trump. more religious conservatives with carson, are you seeing that? >> well, the polling data i'm looking at is showing that trump is drawing from almost every corner of the party and almost equally. so he doesn't have like a simple, natural constituency. he has the economic conservatives. he's got a big portion of them. he's got a big portion of evangelicals. some of the defense hawks, people concerned about military things. ben carson, i think, comes where he gets a lot of support out of the evangelical community. if donald was being clever by mentioning the seventh day adventist, because as you know in the religious world, i'm actually catholic, but in the religious world, some evangelicals don't like the adventists too much. they have problems. >> and that makes me think back to huckabee versus romney in 2007 and 2008.

romney was the front-runner, but huckabee zoomed past him. do you think evangelicals look at that and say, either? >> it does now where it was not even talked about will suddenly be talked about. at the end of the day, i don't thing it's going to get that personal. i think they really do like each other. trump said a few weeks ago he would consider ben carson as a potential vice president or made a remark that stranger things have happened. knowing both of them, i doubt either one of them would have each other as a vice president. it is amazing that the both of them together are polling at about 50% of the republican vote, 40% of the republican vote. it's a very huge number. it's something both are tapping into with their very different personalities. both are playing the outsider card and the american exceptionalism card, they're for a strong america. i think that's attracting the

public to both of them. >> christopher ruddy from newsmax, if there is another dinner between them, let us know. thank you for your time. >> thank you, steve. up next, can '41, '43 and the rest of the bush brethren help jeb get back on track to become '45? technology empowers us to achieve more. it pushes us to go further. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours, and that's time that we can invest in our athletes and changing the world. nobody's hurt,but there will you totstill be pain.new car. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it.

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welcome to "the lid." it is debate week and the

pressure is high for jeb bush with his campaign cutting salaries and staff. mammoth ad spending not moving the needle. even former president george h.w. bush struggling to understand donald trump's impact on the race. the clock is ticking whether bush can turn things around. welcome to both of you. beth, let me start with you. donor retreat in houston. george bush '41 there, george bush '43 there, jeb bush is there. these donors have given a lot of money and watched this campaign and super pac spend a lot of that money on ads. jeb is in single digits everywhere. can you see a way that jeb bush actually turns this around and actually gets traction if all this spending hasn't gotten him that? >> it's going to be tough this debate wednesday is going to be huge for jeb bush without question.

he's done okay in the last couple of debates. he hasn't done well enough to change the dynamic. it's still trump's race. carson is coming up, sliding into that great position in iowa as you discussed earlier in the show. this meeting with his father and brother, it just reenforces everything trump is going after about him. trump has mocked jeb bush. he needs his mommy and daddy to help him. it's that bullying, taunting thing he does so well. jeb had to see his mom, dad and brother and step out with them. that's part of hoe is. i don't think it helps him in the long run. >> he really has, donald trump is the perfect foil -- jeb bush is the perfect foil for donald trump. some of the lines, he has to go home to mommy and daddy, he's low energy. they are devastating because there is a kernel of truth. >> it's the candidate running for the seat his brother had,

his father dad. donald says my dad gave me a small loan of $1 million. it's the idea of dynasty, establishment. we've seen it before. we might see it a third time. jeb is, like we've all seen. he doesn't say the kind of things that grab people's attention. when he does, it's not in a good way. he makes reference to supergirl and says she's hot. >> it's awkward, isn't it? >> it's not the news you want to make as a candidate. i can only imagine his aides left are very frustrated this smart guy who has given a lot of thought about government, the only time he makes news is when he puts his foot in his mouth. donald trump does that on purpose. he is inoculated by criticisms that knock out a candidate. >> the old story about the bush family was george bush '41 always saw jeb as the logical rightful heir and not necessarily george w. i was reading george w. and jeb got together at this retreat. i was reading a transcript of

them on stage taking questions from a moderator. i'm looking at these jokes george w. spits out. some are self-deprecating and mischevious. there was mockery of george w.'s speaking style. he was ultimately an effective communicator in a way we north seeing with jeb. >> very much so. everything bush says doesn't register with anyone unless it's awkward or lands with a thud. this weekend he was saying, i could be doing so many other cool things with my time. i don't have to sit here being miserable. that's not a good campaign ad. he cannot seem to get out of his own way. trump does not have that problem. trump can say things like my father gave me a small loan of $1 million. why does that bother me? >> what would it take for bush to turn this around? >> it almost sounds like he would have to act like trump.

the way bernie sanders is shifting hillary clinton on economic policy and having her tout her progressive credentials. you're seeing jeb bush be hit with the criticism he is low energy, he doesn't have fresh new ideas. he's just not connecting with people. i was looking at the interview joe biden gave on "60 minutes" about not running. you couldn't help but feel compassion for this guy. there was some connection he was having with people. as a parent who lost a child. every family has been impacted by cancer. there were these human relatable moment s that seems foreign to jeb bush. i don't know if there is a moment he said anything during this campaign that voters said, that's like me. >> i try to think of what is the basic message for every campaign. if you're an average voter, why is hillary running, why is jeb? a lot of them are easy to figure out. i think the biggest problem for the jeb bush campaign is the

average person says he's running because his dad was president and his brother was president. that's what's going on in houston reenforces that. beth and ozzie, thank you for joining us today. chuck will be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily" and richard wolffe picks up our coverage next. now on msnbc live, donald trump targets ben carson and his religion as two new polls show it's carson who has the momentum. plus -- >> i've got a lot of really cool things i can do other than sit around being miserable listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. >> did we hear jeb bush hinting at his exit strategy as his campaign restructures. >> bernie sanders ramping up his rhetoric against hillary clinton. >> i think bernie sanders seemed to have a course correction in the j.j.